The Lost Illusion – Politics


One of two things: either Brazil can now appeal to the priest for excessive help, because the patient will die in five minutes, or there is something terribly wrong in the medical bulletin on the patient’s health which does not is not accessible to the public. is issued for. Inflation was above 10% in 2021. Unemployment is indeed falling, but there are still more than 13 million unemployed on the road. Earnings plummeted. Poverty has increased. The economy is not growing at all. There is no longer a federal budget. The president is bad. Minister of Cultivate is bad. The other ministers are bad. So why doesn’t the patient die immediately?

One of the hypotheses is a dysfunction of what could be called a national economic information system; This is where anyone interested in population issues, or public life, gets information on the country’s economy. This mechanism is known to winnow incorrectly. It’s natural. Journalists, when they have something to say about it, turn to economists – who as journalists themselves know little about what is going on, but like them, those who do not know the economy or any other subject. are absolutely safe. The questions they ask and the answers they give because of their belief both satisfy people’s desires – and, if it’s not the reality, worse for the reality, and worse for the paying public.

As we can now see, the sordid outrage over inflation is a clear case of a diagnosis that doesn’t match the disease. It’s as if Brazil were outside the solar system. Inflation in the United States was 7% in 2021, the worst result in 40 years. If US inflation was 7%, how high would Brazil be according to economists? Inflation in rich countries in general, as measured by the entire OECD, was just under 6%. Can you compare the economies of the United States, Europe and Japan to the economies of Brazil, in terms of size, organization and quality, bad thing? If they are in bad shape, after two years of economic destruction due to Covid and their “staying at home”, why should Brazil be doing well?

It’s not just inflation. The 2021 public account, which by decision of the “system” should have a deficit of “R$250 billion”, had a balance between R$20 billion and R$40 billion. Brazil spent the last year at the same level as before the pandemic; No one has achieved something like this. Is the country in trouble? Yes, but to think that only the government has something to do with it is a lost illusion.

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